Beyond the Vale

In the 16th Century, as part of the colonization of Ireland under the English Crown ‘plantations’ were established where English & Scottish settlers were placed to displace the local population. While only partially successful in the ‘Pale’ of Dublin, this tactic was very effective in Ulster, and which ultimately led to ‘the Troubles’ and the partition of Ireland.

A similar tactic was also used in Wales, most notably in South Pembrokeshire, where Flemish settlers were used to displace and dilute the local Welsh speaking population, and the linguistic divide is still very apparent today.

While I sympathise with those who oppose the ‘University of Death’ at St Athan on pacifist grounds, I oppose it because it represents nothing more than a repeat of these earlier settlement tactics, brought forward to the modern day.

Peter Hain and the promoters of the scheme claim that it will bring 5,000 jobs to Wales and will be a huge boost to the local economy – not just in the Vale of Glamorgan but in neighbouring Cardiff and Bridgend. But lets look at this more objectively and ask what jobs will be created and who will fill them.

In the short term, around 1,000 construction jobs in will be created during building of the facilities, and while these will be mostly filled locally, they will only be temporary lasting no more than two years.

Of the permanent jobs, around 3,000 will be filled by trainers, technicians, military support staff and civil servants. These jobs will not be filled locally, but will be transferred from existing military bases elsewhere in the UK, and many of the positions will be viewed as ‘expatriate’ postings.

Potentially 2,000 jobs could be filled locally, but these will be mostly low paid support jobs including cleaners, cooks, secretaries, administrative staff etc. While these jobs are better than none at all, they must be balanced against the fact that the incoming transferred staff will also be bringing their families, many of whom will be looking for work locally and these new job seekers will largely offset the new jobs created.

There will undoubtedly be a boost to the local economy as money is spent in shops & pubs, houses are rented etc but this will also increase prices and put a strain on local services and we can soon expect a vociferous minority to demand ‘English-curriculum’ schooling and opt-outs from Welsh lessons.

The local economic benefits from this project are questionable (incidentally I would also raise similar concerns about the proposed Severn Barrage), but this is not why the project is proposed.

This is simply a 21st Century Plantation - designed to dilute the local population and defuse nationalist sentiments.

The Severn Mirage

There seems to be a bit of interest in the Severn Barrage at the moment, with our own Governor General claiming it will generate 40,000 new jobs, and Tony Blair making supportive noises. Sounds like excellent news for our struggling economy, and we should throw ourselves at the feet of Peter Hain, but lets not get carried away.

Looking at the positives first, construction activity is one of the best ways to stimulate the economy – it is labour intensive with a high proportion of locally sourced materials, and also has a high ‘multiplier’ effect – for every one direct job created it creates 2 or 3 additional jobs in service industries.

But there is a big difference between small construction projects and mega-projects such as the barrage. On smaller projects, for example local housing developments, the work is typically carried out by local builders, using a network of local available services and subcontractors, and most of the money spent stays within the local economy.

Even on the larger projects, such as the St Davids 2 development in Cardiff which will employ over 1,000, the majority of the workforce will be locally recruited, although many of the support services will be sourced at a UK level.

But this is not the case on mega-projects like the Barrage. The main contract will have to be put to international tender, and is just as likely to be won by an Italian contractor than a British one. The work will then be divided up into a series of subcontracts, which could see the main rock supply contract won by a quarry in Portugal; marine dredging works being done by a Dutch fleet; lockgates fabricated in France, and so on. There will still be a local requirement for labourers, carpenters, steelfixers etc, but mega-projects tend to attract an itinerant workforce, and you are just as likely to hear a Scouse or Geordie accent on site as one from the Valleys.

More realistically, I estimate that the barrage would only generate around 1,000 direct jobs in Wales, with maybe a similar number of indirect jobs – and lasting for only 2 or 3 years. In itself, that is a desirable result, but it is a long way off the 40,000 jobs promised by Peter Hain, but then again, when was the last time you believed anything that this idiot said?

Ps I am a Construction Manager and have worked for the last 20 years on international mega-projects similar to this one.