Independence inevitable

Following a number of welcome contributions to this blog by Plaid Cymru members, we received the following contribution from a well-meaning patriotic correspondent.

It is both a perceptive and sincere critique of Plaid’s ‘road map to independence’ stance, and a challenge to that party to seriously grasp the issue by the throat and fight it out on the political agenda come May’s elections.

It is also an intriguing analysis of the ‘inevitability’ of Welsh independence, as a broader debate on devolved national institutions – specifically, the growing calls for an English Parliament – becomes unavoidable. Read on…

I’m new to this blogging business but an old hand at seeing things for what they are, and I pride myself on being a pretty shrewd observer of the Welsh scene.

One thread I notice running through the contributions is that Plaid is different to the other – the ‘Brit’ – parties and will, furthermore, deliver us independence. Now I hate to be a spoilsport but I’ve got more faith in next door’s cats to deliver independence.

Looking at the popular and political trends in this island I see independence coming not from heroic efforts by Plaid Cymru but from forces totally beyond our control.

If the SNP does as well as is currently anticipated (and if the other pro-independence parties also do well up there), and if Gordie Broon becomes Prime Minister, there will definitely be a reaction in England. (it may have already started.) This will be a popular and spontaneous movement outside of and beyond the control of the Conservative Party, and even UKIP.

A great many English will say ‘OK, sod off you ungrateful buggers’. Although directed primarily at the Scots this sentiment will be extended to Wales because few English understand – or care about – the different devolution settlements or the differing popular sentiments on the issue of independence.

Which could give rise to a situation that I find hilarious. The Conservatives jump on the bandwagon – or is it a tiger? – and get elected promising an ‘English parliament’, and ‘reducing outside interference’ (from Scotland and Wales). This pushes the Scots over the brink and increases support for independence in Wales.

The Plaid-led coalition in Cardiff docks is horrified! They implore the London government, ‘Pull back! We don’t want independence’. But it’s too late; the break-up of the UK has now attained an unstoppable momentum. Welsh independence is forced on Plaid Cymru by The Conservative and Unionist Party. Delicious!

Jack o’ the North

20-20 Vision

If I was to be asked ‘Is Wales ready for independence’, then in all honesty I would have to answer – No - not yet. But all that we are lacking is a little time – time in which to develop our national institutions and in which to become more confident in our own abilities.

If you look at all of the recently independent European states, they all enjoyed considerable autonomy prior to independence, typically within some form of federal structure. They were already managing most of their internal affairs, and it was not a huge step to finally break free - not dissimilar to the situation Scotland finds itself in today.

By contrast Wales has been consistently held back by the UK Government, and today many decisions which should be made in Wales are still controlled by London, but this is now gradually changing, and we are catching up with Scotland. I suggest the following roadmap for completing our journey to independence:

2007 - 2011
The new Assembly settlement enables us to progressively transfer more and more powers to Wales, and we should seize on every opportunity to take control of our own affairs. At the same time we need to make sure that all remaining UK functions, are accounted for on a Wales-only basis so that we have a full understanding of our finances. We also need to start to discuss independence openly.

2011 - 2015
It has already been suggested that a referendum be held in 2011 to upgrade our Assembly to a full law-making Parliament. This should be won comfortably (it would probably be won if held today) and we will then have caught up with Scotland’s position in 1999. We then need a few more years to learn to use these new powers, and we will then be ready for independence

2015 - 2020
The following Senedd elections in 2015 should be fought on the issue of independence. Even with a pro-independence Government in Cardiff, London would almost certainly insist on another referendum – but which should be winnable, especially as we would be following in Scotland’s footsteps.

It may take a few years more or less, but I believe that achieving independence by 2020 is a realistic achievable target and this is my vision.

An article by Jeremy Page and Richard Beeston in the Times on the 03/06/06 also suggested that Wales could become independent by 2020.

Lets take a journey.....

Ron Davies said that Devolution was a process not an event. Personally I believe that it is a journey, with an independent Wales being the eventual destination. But before planning the rest of the journey, it is worth reminiscing about some of the sights we have passed on the way:

The first significant step to devolution was not Ron’s assembly, but the disestablishment of the Church in Wales in 1920. This seems almost irrelevant today, but at the time this was a huge step as it represented the first official recognition that the 1536 Act of Union had failed to integrate Wales into England. Opposition at the time claimed that Wales was not a nation but simply a geographical area of England – How I would love to hear Peter Hain say that on TV today!!

In the 50s and 60s the UK governments tried to defuse growing Welsh aspirations by deliberately ignoring the Welsh border with such public bodies as the Merseyside & North Wales Electricity Board (Manweb), Television for Wales & West (TWW), and Welsh Water – which covered only 90% of Wales, but included large parts of England. We were given a series of colonial governors instead of democracy, and the recommendations of the Kilbrandon Commission were ignored.

At this point I have to confess to voting No in 1979, not because I opposed devolution, but I did not want Wales to become a super-county – something like Yorkshire. In hindsight I am not sure that was the right decision, but through perseverance we eventually got a more meaningful Assembly, even if we were first given a puppet leader in Alun Michael.

The original Assembly was toothless, but was strengthened gradually from within, with our patronizingly named First Secretary becoming our First Minister, and their Assembly becoming our Senedd. True to form, the UK politicians ignored the Richards Commission, and we will now get an Assembly Mark 2 instead of a Parliament.

But the more the unionists resist change, and implement half baked solutions, then the more the people of Wales will insist on further change. Opinion polls show that there is now an overwhelming demand for a full parliament, and support for independence is growing steadily.

In just under 20 years, we will ‘celebrate’ the 500th anniversary of our annexation by England – Our goal must be to see that this anniversary is not reached. We now need to plan the rest of our journey.