There is an interesting poll out today showing how the level of support for devolution has changed over the last 10 years. It shows the support for Independence at 12% (14% in 1997); a Full Parliament 43% (20% in 1997); an Assembly 27% (28% in 1997); No Devolution 17% (40% in 1997).
I suggest looking at these figures differently – in 1997 40% of people were satisfied with the status quo while 60% wanted more devolution (up to and including independence). Today, with the Assembly already established 55% still want more devolution. The opinion split is almost the same – but with the battleground moved to a higher level.
By the time that this poll is repeated in another 10 years time, Wales should already have a full Parliament. I forecast that the new poll will be similar to the 1997 and 2007 results, with around half the electorate satisfied with the new status quo, and half wanting still more devolution. But next time around, more devolution will effectively mean independence.
Our time will come - we have to be patient.
9 comments:
Hello,
Your blog is very interesting. I knew nothing about Wales and its will to be independent (I am guilty). Sure I will visit you from now on. From Catalonia, my best wishes to the Welsh people. I invite you to my blog soscatalonia.blogspot.com. I know my English is not good enough but I try to do my best to show the world our situation in Spain.
Be patient and our countries will seat together in the UN as free nations.
See you soon.
Yes I agree with you, but maintain that the movement will accelerate, and that it will come sooner rather than later.
What do you mean by 'our' time will come? Sounds a bit selfish.
OUR - The supporters of independence - WE - who have been held back for so long by the likes of Kinnock telling everyone that we were not capable of running our own affairs - US - who will eventually form the majority opinion in Wales, and will be able to assert our deomcratic will and vote for independence.
That clear enough for YOU ??
Why the great passion for yet another nation state in the world? Hundreds already exist, and I which of those we in Wales ought to take inspiration from, or would our's be wholly different from the rest? Chasing the institutions of the Nationa State to remedy our probelms here in Wales seems to me to be backward-looking, romanticist, phantasmagoric, and plain wrong!
I give you just one example - Ireland - but there are many more.
I take it from your name that you are advocating city states....so what about basing our new nation on Greater Cardiff, with its hinterland spreading as far East as Chepstow, North West to Ynys Mon and North East to Deeside.
But to avoid confusion we will call it Cymru/Wales
Let's avoid confusion altogether and confess that Citystates and Nationa States are distinctly different.
So, contemporary Ireland is the model you choose to base a future Wales upon, is it that correct? I pity us, were it feasible!
You know, Penddu, I had a dream a few weeks ago, wherein I managed to gather all of South Wales, including the coastal cities, under one sprawling mass of civic pride. I was offered the chance to name it, too, and called it - quite simply - 'Valleys'! Dreams are like that sometimes, though, aren't they?
OK NM..
Well let's hope these statistics are correct and we can enjoy independence by 2020. I really hope Scotland gets their independence by 2011, then there would be no point us staying in the Union; I know I don't want to be part of England, like unfortunately they think Cornwall (Kernow) is.
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